Any sunshine that the Finger Lakes is experiencing this morning should be worn away by mid- to late-afternoon as a cold front approaches.
According to our local forecast, temperatures will be in the mid-40s thanks to a southerly wind. Rain showers will be possible in developing during the afternoon hours, which will trumped by a period of light rain as a cold front moves through overnight.
The on-and-off mixture of rain, clouds, and scattered sun will continue over the next couple days – but FLX Weather Meteorologist Drew Montreuil, as well as the National Weather Service have been following a possible ‘major winter weather event’ that Montreuil said last week was one of the most-over-hyped winter weather events he’d ever seen from forecasters.
The forecast, which came out more than two weeks ahead of Thanksgiving week – when many travelers are on the road – called for a possible ‘major’ winter weather event, which included the threat for significant snowfall, and howling winds off of Lake Ontario.
Two big action items, according to Montreuil, which he addressed in his Wednesday update:
Will there be a major lake effect snow event this weekend?
“While lake effect does seem likely, temperatures on Sunday are expected to be well above freezing. This should limit snow accumulations significantly. A few inches of snow could still fall somewhere in the triangle between Rochester, Ithaca, and Syracuse Sunday night into Monday, but a significant storm level event seems questionable.”
What about this nor’easter Accuweather has been talking about between Tuesday and Thanksgiving?
“This has been an idea perpetuated by Accuweather for over a week and one that still remains a mystery to me. I see no indications of such an event on the European model or its ensemble suite. In fact, my current forecast for next Tuesday is sunshine and low 50s.”
But what does the National Weather Service say about all of this weather?
“A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move through the central Great Lakes Saturday, with an associated strong cold front crossing Western New York and the eastern Lake Ontario region late in the day. Strong winds may develop behind this cold front Saturday night, with wind gusts possibly in excess of 50 mph. The strongest winds would likely be found east of Lake Ontario.
Much colder air will move into the region by Sunday. This may set the stage for lake effect snow east and southeast of Lake Ontario Sunday through Monday. It remains far too early for any specifics on snowfall amounts or exact location.”
Here’s your extended forecast from the NWS
Thursday
Showers likely, mainly after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 47. South wind 13 to 17 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Thursday Night
Rain showers likely before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light in the afternoon.
Friday Night
Rain likely after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
Rain. High near 49. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Saturday Night
Showers, mainly before midnight. Low around 36. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Sunday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 45.
For the latest forecast from the National Weather Service check out the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center. Be sure to check out Finger Lakes Weather Meteorologist Drew Montreuil in the FL1 Studio this Friday, talking about weather hype, and what Thanksgiving travel might look like.
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