Latest – 4 p.m.
The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the entire region until 9 p.m. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move eastward along a frontal boundary. The clash of cooler, dry air – along with the warm, muggy air ahead of the front is creating enough instability to prompt a watch.
The biggest threat with these storms will be damaging winds. Separate of the storms, the entire region remains in a Wind Advisory until early morning on Saturday. Winds could gust in excess of 50 mph. Severe warned storms could have wind gusts significantly higher than the advisory, so be sure to watch individual warnings that pop up for storms this evening.
For the latest warnings and advisories visit the National Weather Service’s resource page here.
A #Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 9PM for the entire Buffalo forecast area. pic.twitter.com/cY2KNTyYRG
— NWS Buffalo (@NWSBUFFALO) May 4, 2018
Remember a WATCH means conditions are becoming more favorable for some scattered thunderstorms that may produce damage. However, severe weather is not yet occurring.
A WARNING will be issued if an imminent weather danger is more likely for parts of our area. https://t.co/9rZ14vt5Dr
— Peter Hall (@PeteWeatherBeat) May 4, 2018
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of NY, OH, PA, WV until 9 PM EDT pic.twitter.com/JJuDNMuSKG
— NWS Binghamton (@NWSBinghamton) May 4, 2018
Morning Report
There’s an elevated risk for strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday, according to forecasters in the Finger Lakes.
FLX Weather Meteorologist Drew Montreuil said “Environmental conditions are more favorable for severe thunderstorms today compared to yesterday with strong wind fields aloft and an increase in moisture at the surface.” He said that atmospheric instability remains the uncertainty. “Instability is a key ingredient that is necessary for thunderstorms to quickly develop and grow. Yesterday, the atmosphere generally remained stable and unfavorable for thunderstorm development. As a result, there was only one severe storm in our area between Elmira and Binghamton.”
Steady rain is on its way out. There will be some breaks of sunshine returning.
The risk of thunderstorms will exist by the late afternoon and early evening. We will likely see some wind gusts to 50 mph during that time. pic.twitter.com/52MWF0Ionk
— Marty Snyder 13WHAM (@MartySnyder13) May 4, 2018
He says that waves of energy in the atmosphere and an approaching cold front will possibly trigger lines of thunderstorms during the late-afternoon and early-evening hours. If that instability is persistent enough, severe thunderstorms will be possible.
“Damaging winds will again be the primary threat,” Montreuil explained. “There is a small hail and tornado threat, mostly limited to any storm cells that remain isolated by themselves.”
HRRR model depicting a robust squall line of showers and thunderstorms around 5 p.m. Need to keep an eye to the sky. This is also when we may see our strongest wind gusts today. #ROC pic.twitter.com/LX3UUXpWXU
— Josh Nichols (@wnywxguy) May 4, 2018
The National Weather Service has also issued a wind advisory for the entire region, which runs until 2 a.m. The main threat for wind will be associated with the approaching cold front, which will dry out the air just in time for the weekend. Gusts in excess of 50 mph are possible.
Read more about the threat on Friday, and the clearing out that will take place this weekend here.
Visit the FingerLakes1.com Weather Center for the latest forecast information.
Latest NAM model shows strong wind potential I've been highlighting this morning. Best chance for strong winds in low-level jet just above us to be drawn down to the surface would be in any thunderstorms this afternoon. 55-60 mph gusts possible. #ROC pic.twitter.com/YaS589Cxum
— Josh Nichols (@wnywxguy) May 4, 2018
Powerful jet stream…hence, part of why we have the strong wind potential in Western New York today. #ROC #WNY #WX https://t.co/8D9Pl23qry
— Josh Nichols (@wnywxguy) May 4, 2018
A strengthening storm system passing north of NY will bring strong gusty winds and a potential for severe storms later today. Wind Advisory for gusts 50-55mph and Slight Risk for severe storms and damaging winds with possible squall line. https://t.co/SzwAvEBzta for updates pic.twitter.com/bJZbtFlMug
— NWS Buffalo (@NWSBUFFALO) May 4, 2018