Showers expected today in the Finger Lakes

Often times in the summer, the difference between severe thunderstorms and nothing can be as little as a few hours of sunshine or a couple hundred miles. Everything has to line up perfectly, and often times, one ingredient or another is missing.Today is a perfect example. An axis of higher moisture in the atmosphere will serve as the focal point for showers and thunderstorms today. These showers will move through the Finger Lakes this morning, cutting off the chances for morning sun. As a result, the atmosphere will become overly favorable for robust storm development.Over eastern New York and New England, where there will be more morning sun, the missing ingredient will be the atmospheric winds. The stronger the winds aloft, and the more different from the winds at the surface, the better the chance for severe storms.The winds are most favorable for severe storms over the Upper Great Lakes, but these locations are behind the axis of moist air. While it is humid at the surface to our west, the atmosphere as a whole is pretty dry, making it difficult for storms to get going.As you can see, over the span of 500-1000 miles, there are three areas that each have 1 different ingredient for severe weather, but are missing the other pieces. This is why severe weather prediction can be so difficult, even as soon as 12 hours in advance.The result for today’s weather in the Finger Lakes will be a some morning showers and a couple thunderstorms in the late morning and early to mid afternoon. These storms should not be severe, though a little small hail or a gusty wind is not totally out of the picture. The severe weather index today is just 1.5 (the maximum value is 10). Heavy rain may accompany any of the midday storms that form, but flash flooding should not be a major concern either.For the latest local forecast, conditions, and live radar images visit the FingerLakes1.com Local Weather Center.