Thunderstorms this afternoon in the FLX

We are starting off today quite mild, with temperatures already well into the 60s for much of the Finger Lakes.It feels rather muggy out as well, but our moisture will only increase through the day.This will set the stage for thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front approach from the northwest.The winds aloft will not be overly strong, so the severe threat should be limited. On similar days with a more impressive wind field, the severe threat would be decent. Instead, today ranks as a 2.0 on my new, experimental severe weather scale, which ranges from 0 (no threat) to 10 (extreme threat).The primary threat today will be hail. Some hail may exceed 1″, but should stay smaller than 2″. Winds should only be strong enough to damage trees that are already weakened or rotting. I expect each of these threats to be scattered. There is no real tornado threat today.There is a small flash flooding risk, due to the very high water content in the atmosphere, but thankfully storms should be able to move along at a decent enough rate that major flooding is most likely not going to happen.

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