St. Patrick’s Day Storm? Not in the FLX

A series of cold fronts, one of which has already gone through, will send our temperatures back down as we continue our roller coaster weather as spring and winter battle. Some rain showers will be possible this morning, but there may be a bit of a lull around midday before rain and eventually snow showers move back in.Additional snow showers will be possible overnight and early Sunday morning due to some lake influence from Lake Ontario and northwest winds. Accumulations are not expected to be a problem, with most areas getting no more than a coating. Temperatures, which started the day in the low 40s, will slowly back into the 30s this afternoon. Overnight, the cold air really comes in, with lows dropping into the single digits. Highs will struggle to reach 20º on Sunday.I’ve fielded quite a few questions regarding a potential storm on Monday. Yesterday, I even gave it some credit, though I cautioned that most of the major weather models did not bring it into our area.This morning, the models were in good agreement that this will be a problem for the Mid-Atlantic, specifically Virginia, and not us. The graphic below shows the European ‘ensemble’ snowfall forecast.Each row in this graph is the European model, run with slightly different input conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, etc. These slight adjustments and reruns are done over 50 times to give a range of possibilities. While it is possible for all 50+ ensembles to be wrong, given the fact that no other models bring us snow either, I think we are safe for St. Patrick’s Day.

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