Latest on tonight’s Winter Storm

The latest Finger Lakes forecast shows snow overnight with an accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Near steady temperatures in the lower 20s. Then on Wednesday, additional accumulation of 4 to 7 inches. Near steady temperatures in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. A winter storm watch is in effect for the entire Finger Lakes Region.The latest storm analysis from FL1 Meteorologist Drew Montreuil…Remember how, through the course of the storm, I was worried about warm air and a dry slot? Remember how this morning I had finally put that idea to rest due to consistency in the models? Unfortunately, that confidence is shot now, thanks to the model image below. This is a winter radar simulation from the high resolution ‘NAM’ model run by NOAA. It is trending further northwest, which has huge impacts on our forecast.Now, it is not certain that this will come to pass. Normally, one model deviating from the average 24 hours before the storm wouldn’t concern me too much. However, since this supports what I thought was logical before the storm was close enough to trust the models, it has me greatly interested.The bottom line is this: the weather is unpredictable! Sometimes, there just isn’t an easy answer on what will happen. In those cases, it is important to explain each possible scenario. I am not abandoning the snow map below, but I am explaining the different possibilities.More updates this evening as this continues to evolve!

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