Winter Storm to Hit FLX Tuesday Night

Confidence continues to increase in a major winter storm set to impact our region Tuesday Night through Wednesday. Here are FL1 Meteorologist Drew Montreuil’s latest thoughts on the storm.– This is looking like an all snow event. I have been very cautious with this given how this type of storm usually works. However, the weather models are very consistently keeping us cold enough for snow at all levels of the atmosphere. What is more, the warm air necessary to mix with sleet or freezing rain is displaced well to the south over southern and central Pennsylvania. I will not be 100% confident in an all-snow event until it actually happens, but I am not confident enough to say that there is very little chance of anything but snow from this storm.- Since this storm will be all snow, a good portion of the area should see a moderate to heavy snow. The exact amounts are still a bit uncertain, but it seems likely that a band of heavy snow will set up somewhere over New York or northern Pennsylvania. Areas within this band should approach a foot of snow, with some locally higher amounts. Outside of this swath, a solid 6-10″ seems likely for most of the rest of the region.- It looks like the peak of this storm will be sometime Wednesday morning. Nailing down the exact hours is still too uncertain, but expect travel to be treacherous on Wednesday, including for the morning commute. Snow may start as early as 9pm Tuesday in the further west areas and should linger on through Wednesday and into Thursday with snow showers.- Winds will not pick up until after the heaviest snow has fallen with some gusts of 20-30mph Wednesday night. This will cause some blowing and drifting, but the winds look quite light during the peak of the storm.- Temperatures will mostly be in the mid to upper 20s during this storm. Some areas could push towards 30º for a time on Wednesday.- I remain somewhat leery of a ‘dry slot’, which can end precipitation early as dry air gets wrapped into the storm. Based on how the storm appears to be evolving, I do not think we will see a dry slot coming into New York. But it is something to keep in mind that could drastically cut down on snow totals.

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