Winter Storm To Hit Saturday

A winter storm is set to impact the area tomorrow with a widespread moderate snowfall. This storm will be very uniform across the region, meaning everyone should get about the same snow. Rather than make a map showing a single, solid snow range, I felt that my weekend weather graph captured the reality of this storm better.Snow will move into the Finger Lakes in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, probably between 2-4 am. The snow will be light and should stay mostly light through the morning. This is reflected in the ‘meh’ rating for the morning on the graph above.You will also notice that the graph takes a sharp turn for the worse Saturday afternoon, bottoming out roughly between 6 pm and midnight. This is showing the height of the storm tomorrow, when the snow will become moderate to heavy. The bulk of our precipitation should come during this window. The one thing working against a lot of heavy snow during this period is less than ideal snow crystal formation as temperatures in the clouds increase. Since this warming coincides with the period of heaviest snow, if it stays just a bit colder, snow totals could see a boost.Given the generally good model agreement and widespread, uniform nature of this storm, I feel pretty good choosing a tight interval for snow totals. I think that most areas will end up with 6-8″ of snow by Sunday morning as the storm moves out. Might someone only see 4 or 5″? Sure. A snow total range always has some variations due to things such as wind, snow measurement techniques and local influences. Now, if the warming of the clouds I mentioned in the last paragraph does not quite play out, we could easily see an additional few inches of snow, with some locations even getting near a foot. This is unlikely, but I mention it like this as an alternative to using a wide, 6-12″ snow forecast.- FL1 Staff Meteorologist Drew Montreil, Local Weather Center

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