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Winter storm expected to hit Tuesday

If you look outside your window today, you will likely see blue skies with a few clouds skirting by. For some areas, a decent amount of snow will cover everything, but at least it won’t be snowing anymore.It is all a deception. While our weather is quiet today after an active weekend, an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will be developing and starting its journey towards us.The first impacts of this storm system, which is forecast to track just inland of the eastern seaboard before heading through eastern Pennsylvania and New York, will be felt Tuesday afternoon. Snow will break out from south to north, and it may come down a bit hard at times. After a few hours, a general 1-4″ of snow will coat the Finger Lakes.Then the forecast gets tricky. As the low moves in Pennsylvania, warm air will wrap around it from the southeast. Above freezing temperatures will move into the eastern and possibly central Finger Lakes, changing any snow over to a mix of sleet and mostly rain. Areas like Elmira, Ithaca and Auburn may receive over and inch of rain Tuesday night.Further west- Canandaigua, Geneseo, Dansville- the precipitation will change over to sleet, but it may not get cold enough at the surface for rain. The best chance for the precipitation to stay mostly snow will be west of the Genesee Valley. For these areas, a significant snowstorm is possible.By Wednesday morning, the low will be tracking into northeaster New York. Cold air will move in behind the low, sending temperatures back into the 20s. Any rain will turn to snow, with the snow likely sticking around most of the day. Another 1-4″, at least, will be possible on Wednesday.Now, a slight shift in the track could alter the zones shown on the map significantly. Confidence remains lower than normal, but given the complexity of the storm, the models show a fair amount of agreement with the above scenario. Keep checking back for more updates tonight and tomorrow.

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