First snow arrives, storm possible this week

Lake effect snow continued Sunday morning, with some areas of heavy snow. As of 7:00 am, the snow was primarily east of Cayuga Lake and along the I-90 Corridor. It will likely stay in these places this morning and then weaken during the afternoon. An additional 1-4″ are possible, though some areas east of Cayuga Lake get a bit more.Even as this lake effect event continue, our focus is starting to turn to Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is becoming increasingly likely that a winter storm will move up the east coast and dump snow somewhere in Upstate New York. This could have some major travel impacts, but before you cancel your plans, read on.There are still a number of huge uncertainties that need to be resolved over the next 48 hours. Firstly is the track of the storm. While unlikely, it still could go out to sea and miss the area completely. More likely is a swath of snow somewhere between Buffalo and the Catskills. That is a very large area that needs to be narrowed down.Second is the intrusion of warm air. We have seen it time and time again with developing nor’easters. Warm air wraps around the low and comes at us from the southeast. Whether at the surface, or aloft, any rain, sleet or freezing rain will cut down significantly on snow accumulations (but possibly not the travel impacts).Thirdly is the timing and speed of the storm. The storm will be developing as it moves quickly northeast. How fast it can develop would determine how long the precipitation is over us. If it does not develop fast enough, it will be gone before it has a chance to really get going.I pride myself on no-hype forecasting, but this is a system that will need to be watched. For all the things that could go wrong and prevent this from being a major storm, it could still go down as one of the more memorable recent November snow events.– FL1 Staff Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

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